Earlier this week, CBS News reported that New York had conducted an antibody test on a sample of its residents. Analysis of the test revealed an estimated infection rate of 14% across the state. This takes the estimated mortality rate down to .55%, far lower than what we get when deaths are compared to confirmed cases, currently in the neighborhood of 6% for New York, nearly 100x more deadly than flu.

A .55% mortality rate puts coronavirus a mere 9x more deadly.

The US is divided on how to think about all of this, half of us in favor of lockdown, the other half convinced, still, that CV = flu, now vindicated by the New York study. Understandably, my social media feed has lit up with legions of “told you so” thoughts and reflections on how stupid it is to keep our country in lockdown.

We knew it along, my friends say. Given the new data, a continued lockdown is further evidence of some level of anti-America conspiracy.

When it comes to “all of the data,” we’re all hurting – there’s tons out there, especially when it comes to antibody tests that are currently on the market and how they’re being used.

As with any story, there’s another side of the story, and you don’t have to dig deep to find it.

When a friend of mine posted the New York data, reminding us that this lockdown needs to end, I set out to prove him wrong – I’m just as biased and emotional as anyone else about all of this. Job #1 is therefore to go on the hunt for data that more closely jives with my version of reality.

I found some!!!

I still have a shot at being right.

Seriously though, if you’re looking for a fuller picture, here are some of the things I’ve looked into as I try to get my head around reality. What follows doesn’t make me right and everyone else wrong, I’m posting below because I think these are important to consider.

We’re united in our belief that testing is the only way forward. To move things along, the FDA has lifted restrictions on test providers, allowing about 90 companies, mostly from China, to sell in the US without formal federal review or approval. As you can imagine, a few folks are uncomfortable with this:

“Tests of ‘frankly dubious quality’ have flooded the American market.” ~ Scott Becker, executive director of the Association of Public Health Laboratories.

“People don’t understand how dangerous this test is… We sacrificed quality for speed, and in the end, when it’s people’s lives that are hanging in the balance, safety has to take precedence over speed.” ~ Michael T. Osterholm, infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota.

“The problems mainly happen with rapid tests… They will never be able to tell the spread of the virus because they do not have the required sensitivity and specificity.” ~ Dr. Giorgio Palù, Italian microbiologist and former president of the European Society for Virology.

There’s also a problem with methodology, especially with regards to the New York study which was primarily conducted on the “out and abouters;” people hanging out in public places, not-so-religious about stay at home orders, more likely to carry the antibody, skewing the results. A more comprehensive study would need to include those on the other extreme, far less likely to be infected.

Again, as the number of infections increase, the mortality rate decreases. A test with artificially high (or low) infection numbers will yield artifical mortality rates. New York may ultimately prove itself to have low (or high) numbers, but their recent test is far from proof that a US lockdown is unwarranted, or conspiratorial.

A similar test was conducted in Santa Clara county in California, not yet peer reviewed, but yielding similar results; a much-higher-than-previously-reported infection rate. Statisticians and biomedical researchers weren’t happy:

“Do NOT interpret this study as an accurate estimate of the fraction of population exposed… Authors have made no efforts to deal with clearly known biases and whole study design is problematic.” ~ Marm Kilpatrick, infectious disease researcher at the University of California Santa Cruz.

“Statistician John Cherian of D. E. Shaw Research, a computational biochemistry company, made his own calculations given the test’s sensitivity and specificity — and conservatively estimated the proportion of truly positive people in the Stanford study to range from 0.2% to 2.4%.”

“Biostatistician Natalie E. Dean of the University of Florida called it a ‘consent problem.’ The Facebook ad might have attracted people who thought they were exposed to the virus and wanted testing.”

We’re in a hurry to get back to normal, and getting back to normal means testing = we’re in a hurry to test. This will naturally skew our numbers. It will be awhile before we have clear, relatively inarguable data that can help us decide how to move forward.

Until then, we’ll need to do our best to fact check, get our heads around both sides of the story/who the storytellers are, and try like hell to set our emotions aside before we take to public forums and contribute to misinformation, which is a bad thing right now.

Every perspective is biased. Before we decide what’s true and what’s not, we’re compelled to figure out what those biases are before moving forward. For example, this press conference, held by two ER docs who lean heavily towards the “CV = Flu” side of the story, is circulating around the internet:

According to their research, healthy people no longer need to shelter in place.

I don’t intend to discredit them, or try and convince you that they’re wrong, but if we’re going to allow perspectives like this into the courtroom, both lawyers get to speak. Here’s what I find missing:

1. Neither are experts in the field of epidemiology, statistics, etc. Yes, they studied these in med school, like I studied Greek in seminary, but neither of us are experts.
2. No mention is made of the structure of their study. Who was tested? What are the biases? How is it skewed? The method/structure/etc. isn’t published or peer reviewed – no way to know.
3. They own a business that, financially speaking, according to them, is being negatively affected by this current shut down.
4. They claim that, according to the “scientific minds that read this stuff everyday,” we now have the facts required to open the country. Who?
5. Most importantly, the entirety of their argument hinges on data based on antibody tests, with no mention of the biases/faults mentioned above.

These guys have a right to speak and to share their perspective, and we should listen.

But I’m uncomfortable that this is represented as “expert” research, and that it jives in no way with the perspectives from the MD’s I’m surrounded by, or reccomendations from WHO, CDC, etc.

Either way, there’s not enough here to prove a conspiracy, or to lose our minds because so many in the world still stand in favor of the stay-at-home order.

Moving forward, our tests will get better, and we’ll get more data. We may very well discover that our reaction was overblown and that we were wrong to shut down the country. Until then, I’ll respect those who I don’t disagree with, while simultaneously checking their story, and staying home until I see something a bit more compelling.

Pre pandemic life was going well. I’m an at-home-parent with school-age kids, loving the school year when our house is empty for 7 hours during the day. There’s plenty of time for exercise, writing, and, hypothetically, an occasional Netflix binge. Or two… maybe a nap.

When Denver Public Schools cancelled the party, it wasn’t the end of the world. At home parenting at this stage can get lonely; it’s nice to have a house full of rowdy people, a break from our insane calendar, sleep in a little later, etc.

Then came online learning and the legal expectation that our children would continue their education – and I’d be in charge. If you’ve known me for any length of time, you’re laughing. The transition from, “Hey! Summertime’s starting early!” to “Hey! Let me plan your day and force you to do a bunch of stuff you don’t want to do” was tough.

I hate structure and routine, even more so when I have to force them on someone else. I’m 1/2 extrovert with a million hobbies and a raging case of ADD. The cold, icy fingers of my arch nemesis, Impulse Control, are never welcome.

Thankfully for everyone in this household, I’m married to someone with little tolerance for time wasting and bad grades. Over the years she’s helped me understand the role of healthy choices in the formation of our future adults. Now, in this current goat rodeo that we all find ourselves in, it’s more important than ever.

So, on the weekdays I get up 2 hours earlier than I would otherwise, cook breakfast, break up a million fights about nothing (our two youngest kids don’t have the best relationship), and get the day going.

The toughest things for my kids are the transitions between assignments. They finish one, I give them a break, then gently push them into the next thing. “What?” they say, every time, and “Ugh,” etc. Then, about 30 seconds into the next thing, they settle in and work hard to get things finished.

Our 9 year-old now loves the challenge of “Khan Academy” where she does math quizzes 30 minutes a day and gets to level up when things go well. Our youngest has turned out to be a hard worker, with high expectations of herself when it comes to school work.

I didn’t know this about my kids.

I’m thankful to witness it firsthand.

I’m also thankful for this latest brush with structure and routine. I know they’re good for me, and for our family. My wife’s approach to productive living is a Godsend.

I’m also learning that my personality has specific needs in a time like this. I’m a “7” on the Enneagram Institute’s personality scale, wired for fun, always in dire need of a party – the opposite end of the spectrum from my wife, who’s not a 7. After a long day of being dad, teacher, lunch lady, sherrif, etc., my soul is ready for something that more closely resembles a frat party.

As such, I’ve instituted the weekly, mandatory, holy observance of Grog Night. The only structure and routine here, my friends, is the amount of rum that goes into the Mai Tai’s.

In addition, I’m in need of some time to create things, armed with a ton of experience/skills and frequently distracted by the millions of possibilities there are in this world for DIY type projects.

Years ago, I got into Bonsai, i.e., small, very old trees that are grown and styled in shallow “pots” to look like minature versions of full grown trees. My first impression was that these were grown from seeds and passed from generation to generation. How else could one come to possess a 200 year-old japanese maple? When I learned, however, that the oldest trees are harvested from mountainous, rocky places, like, say, the Rocky Mountains, just down the street, I just about lost my mind.

I was hooked, and could be frequently found off-trail in the middle of nowhere, on the hunt for trophy material. My claim to fame is a 150 year old Ponderosa pine that I harvested back in 2017.

Last year, I drove our minivan up and down a 15 mile Jeep trail looking for trees. When I arrived home with a busted catalytic converter and multiple scratches (we call them “Colorado pinstripes”), Elaine suggested that we buy a Jeep. God love that woman.

Now, in the garage, is an old wreck from the ’70’s, torn apart and undergoing a full rebuild. There’s enough welding, grinding, painting, sandblasting, wiring, praying, and cursing to last me the next 3 pandemics.

It’s saving my soul.

But jeeze am I ever ready for this lockdown to be over. I worry about the essential workers on the front lines who might be exposed, and about those who were already struggling financially before this hit. At the same time, as the spouse/friend of the medical world, I’m hoping and praying that we move forward cautiously – if coronavirus intensifies in the US, things will get much worse.

For now, life feels a bit like prison, with one exception. Each night in Denver, around 8:00 PM, people walk out of their houses, into their yards, and howl, really loud, in support of Denver’s essential worker community. It’s one of the coolest, most unified things I’ve ever seen in my city.

It feels good, and a bit free.

When we care for each other like this, when I watch people put the value of others on display, it somehow makes me feel like I matter.

That’s also saving my soul.

Jesus had a vision; one of peace, mercy, justice, hope, and most importantly, change. Today’s Christianity, at least the version that gets the most press, is different. It’s been Americanized –  preyed upon by Western individualism, bad politics, racism, and a backwash of spiritual segregation that have leaked into its understanding of what Jesus seemed to want most.

But when His teachings are repaired to their ancient Jewish roots, they come alive with thoughts and ideas that anyone in our culture might find compelling, believer or not.

If nothing else, it’s fascinating stuff.

Let’s Talk!

Next month, I’ll be hosting a weekly online discussion (4 weeks) on the teachings of Jesus, removing modern cultural influences and doing my best to teach these as Jesus’ audience would have understood them. There won’t be any attempts at proseltyzation, guilt, or pressure; the intent here is merely to send you away with a deeper understanding of what this guy was talking about, and why it didn’t sit well with the God-followers of His day.

While the last thing we all need is another online get-together, I’m super thankful for this blog’s audience, and would love an opportunity to explore the mind of Jesus more deeply with you.

If you’re interested, or if you have any questions, Fill out the form below and I’ll contact you ASAP. Or, if it’s easier, comment via this post, or via Facebook / IM (friend me if we’re not connected).

Time and dates TBD based on everyone’s availability.

About me: I’m a 50-something dad and husband currently living in Denver, Colorado. I have a master’s degree in Theology from Dallas Theological Seminary, and was fortunate to spend a year of my studies at Denver Seminary.

I hope you can join me.

Peace,

Mark