My wife and I took a vacation to Costa Rica earlier this month. We’d planned it for a long time and decided to roll the dice a bit as our vacation coincided with the news that coronavirus cases in the US were beginning to ramp up. It was a good trip, but we couldn’t help but feel like we’d made a dumb decision. Following that, it feels a bit out of place to rant about how people are dealing with this epidemic, but alas, ranting is what I do..

I’ve spent the past few weeks responding to social media perspectives on how people in the US should be responding/not responding. I don’t put much faith in my ability to change anyone’s mind on Facebook, but, as long as I’m respectful, I don’t think it’s an utter waste of time. So I’ve dove in many times over the past couple of weeks, trying to make one simple point.

I have friends who’ve become convinced that coronavirus is, basically, the flu, and have read TONS of posts indicting the CDC, WHO, etc. for inciting a needless panic. Some of those friends have reduced this to a conspiracy who’s aim is to further discredit our president.

Tonight, at about 11:00 PM, I reached my zenith. A friend posted this:

According to the CDC and WHO, the normal, everyday flu kills a lot of people – A LOT of people. So, what’s everyone freaking out about? Why get so bent out of shape over something that so far has only killed a few people in Colorado? Why aren’t we getting just as crazy about the flu? The answer? There’s nothing to freak out about, so there must be something fishy going on here, ergo the myriad conspiracy/get Trump theories.

Simple Math?

What the coronavirus seems to have revealed about us ‘Mericans is that we have a math problem. According to the CDC, as of this writing, there are 1,629 known cases of COVID-19 in the US, 41 of which have been fatal. The flu’s numbers are much more extreme: 36,000,000 cases with 22,000 deaths.

I had no idea the flu cold get so serious.

But the flu’s been around longer – number comparisons don’t work. We have to look at rates, which is super easy (I swear I’m not trying to sport with your intelligence here – I can’t tell you how many times I’ve had to point this out):

41 ÷ 1,629 = .025
22,000 ÷ 36,000,000 = .0006

The data says that COVID-19 kills 2.5% of its victims, while the normal, everyday flu has a .06% mortality rate. In other words, COVID-19, so far, is 41 times more lethal than flu.

My wife, a medical professional, says that I can’t draw this conclusion. We don’t know how many COVID-19 cases are out there. Many have the virus but are asymptomatic – these go undetected/unreported. And you have to account for the elderly and people with compromised immune systems – their mortality rates are much higher. When the dust settles, the death rate will be closer to 1%.

She’s probably right, and has bested me many times in mathematics.

But the same holds true for the flu. Many cases go untested/unreported, and the elderly/immune compromised are at a higher risk. The numbers from the CDC can only be based on the data that we have, just like our data for coronavirus. I think the “unknowns” come close to cancelling each other out.

But even if we allow a 1% mortality rate for COVID-19, which I think is low, it’s still almost 20x more fatal than the flu

.01 ÷ .0006 = 16.66

Coronavirus ain’t the flu. And all it takes is some super simple math to figure that out.

Time to Panic?

I’m not writing this to scare everyone. I believe, as most do, that panic hurts us all, and makes this situation much worse. But downplaying the facts about this epidemic, or focusing on the “good news” without telling the whole story, also makes this worse. We have a serious problem on our hands, and need to continue to take it seriously.

When someone comes along and says “hey, this is serious, take precautionary measures, even extreme ones if needed,” then a few right-wing pundits respond with, “that’s just a deep-state liberal trying to make this sound worse than it is,” I get angry – not at the “deep state” conspiracy BS, but at a person of influence leading their disciples away from responsible, effective action.

Panic? No. Downplay? Hell no.

My family has decided, at least for a few weeks, to do some extreme social distancing. We’ve travelled recently, I’m immune compromised, and my wife works in a hospital. We’ll stay home as much as possible, and limit our social interactions to only those that are necessary.

I worry for the legion of people who live near me and don’t have this option, now faced with Denver school closures and the resultant child care issues. I’m at a loss for how to help while limiting my interaction with others. In some ways I wish this was a conspiracy, then my kids and I could free-range some old fashioned Christianity; helping our neighbors, making grocery runs, getting to know each other, babysitting, whatever.

If things don’t clear up soon, maybe we’ll do all of that anyway. Home Depot still has masks.